HOLLAND — Cases of COVID-19 remain low in West Michigan as the BA.2 subvariant of omicron takes over as the dominant strain of the virus in the area.
New case counts have reached a plateau with about 17 new COVID-19 cases per day reported in Ottawa County. Test positivity in Ottawa County has been holding steady at about 5.3 percent.
Hospitalizations remain low, too, and hospitals in the area have been able to breathe a sigh of relief and resume more normal operating procedures with the omicron surge over.
The subvariant of omicron appears to be about 30 percent more transmissible than the original omicron variant, BA.1, that swept through West Michigan in January.
BA. 2 has likely become the dominant strain of the virus in the Midwest region of Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota, with a U.S. Centers for Disease Control model estimating that BA.2 accounted for about 67.4 percent of cases in the Midwest as of April 2 and 72.2 percent of cases nationally.
So far though the emergence of BA.2, first detected in Ottawa County March 6, hasn’t led to a rise in cases, though there are some signs an increase could be coming.
As of April 4, most counties in Michigan were on a decline or plateau in terms of new COVID-19 infections, but four counties were showing increases, according to Michigan Department of Health and Human Services data.
“We’re starting to see some increases in different states in the U.S.,” said Marcia Mansaray, deputy health administrator for the Ottawa County Department of Public Health. “We’re not seeing increases here yet, which is good, but just in the last few days there’s a few hints that we might be seeing something. We’ve had more emergency room visits with COVID, a little bit more positive testing, so I think in the next two weeks we’ll know more of how it will behave.
“COVID-19 is not a disease that we understand really well. We still have a lot to learn and we all need to be really humble about it. We can’t really predict what it will do.”
Although the vaccination rate, 62.7 percent of people 5 and older in Ottawa County and 55.4 percent in Allegan County, remains below state and local targets, vaccination combined with natural immunity is expected to temper the next surge.
“We’re hopeful that we won’t see something like last year. Last year we had a big surge in April and we’re not seeing that right now, so it’s encouraging,” Mansaray said. “There’s every reason to hope that if we do have an increase again it won’t look like delta or omicron, due to some of the immunity that people have from getting sick, getting COVID in the last few months, and all those who have been vaccinated and boosted.”
Ottawa County has been working to distribute doses of COVID-19 vaccine to those who qualify for the newly approved fourth shot.
The Food and Drug Administration on March 29 authorized second booster shots for people age 50 and older and for people 12 and older who are immunocompromised, expected to boost protection against severe illness.
The decision to authorize the second booster was somewhat controversial among health experts, with some arguing the age cutoff should be 65 or older and benefits for younger people have not been proven.
“I think everybody would agree that people who have a lot of underlying health conditions, who are immunocompromised, and who are over the age of 65 would likely benefit from it,” said Dr. Liam Sullivan, infectious disease specialist at Spectrum Health.
“The question is do otherwise healthy people really need a fourth shot, and I think a lot of vaccine experts find that very questionable at best, because there is not good data to support that.”
Sullivan said there is no evidence a fourth shot would cause any harm to a healthy person under 65, but it also hasn’t been shown to offer much benefit unless you have chronic health issues.
“I think that if you’re a healthy person under the age of 65, if you really don’t have a lot of health problems and are doing pretty good, three shots are providing pretty darn good protection against severe illness,” Sullivan said.
Public health experts continue to debate what the long-term strategy for keeping COVID-19 at bay will be — and a lot is riding on how well immunity holds up over time.
So far, data suggest the protection against hospitalization and death has held up over time, while the protection against infection with COVID-19 has waned.
“We clearly know that the original vaccine series the protection against actual infection is short-lived and it really doesn’t provide you much protection against omicron (infection) at all, omicron’s able to break through that,” Sullivan said. “But they provide very, very good protection against severe illness and hospitalization, particularly if you get three shots, but even two shots is doing a pretty good job at that as well. The question is how long does that last, and that’s ongoing research right now.”
According to MDHHS data, in January, unvaccinated people were 2.7 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 and 25 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than people who had been vaccinated and received a booster dose.
While cases are low, OCDPH is working with Hope College and Grand Valley State University researchers testing wastewater for COVID-19 virus to find the best way to analyze the data they receive from the programs.
Allegan County Health Department and OCDPH both continue to offer free community testing events, OCDPH four times a week and ACHD twice weekly.
ACHD planning and preparedness coordinator Lindsay Maunz said the department was mostly focused on education and ensuring people in Allegan County have access to testing, vaccines and personal protective equipment such as masks.
The health department is monitoring COVID-19 trends closely, Maunz wrote in an email, to plan for future surges.
Health officials in Allegan County are also seeking community feedback on how the health department responded to the pandemic in the form of a survey the county says will help it plan for future public health emergencies.
— Contact reporter Carolyn Muyskens at cmuyskens@hollandsentinel.com and follow her on Twitter at @cjmuyskens.
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